Employment and output forecasts for the sector by 2024
Between 2014 and 2024, the health and social assistance sectors will account for more than a third of the country’s projected job growth. Construction is expected to be the biggest growth sector, but construction employment is not expected to reach pre-recession levels by 2024. Manufacturing employment is expected to continue to fall, in line with the decline of the past decade.
Through the two years of a 10-year forecast, the bureau of labor statistics (BLS) proposed a economy is back on a more consistent growth path, but the growth rate slower than the long-term trend existed before the great recession. Due to population growth, labor force participation rate continued to decline, the unemployment rate reduce the comprehensive influence of factors such as, from 2014 to 2014, from 2014 to 2014, the employment growth rate will be increased slightly than from 2004 to 2004. The early stages include a professional recession; It is slower than before the recession. The sectors that provide services will account for most of the expected job growth. Employment growth in the two largest services sectors – healthcare and social assistance as well as professional and business services – will continue to be strong. In the field of product production, employment will be driven by the growth of the construction industry.
The BLS forecast focuses on long-term trends. This focus is done by making certain underlying assumptions. Most importantly, the economy will be at or near full employment in the final year of the forecast. These forecasts do not take into account any impact that could tip the economy into recession or overheating. Shocks such as political conflict or tax or legal changes can seriously affect the economy. In this context, this paper will analyze the employment and output forecast of the north American industry classification system (NAICS) industry during 2014-24. The main industry (hereinafter referred to as “the industry”) is the sum of individual industries. Because the prediction is 10 years,
The BLS plans to have a total employment of 1.63 billion people in 2024, an increase of nearly 9.8 million over 2014. This growth represents an average growth rate of 0.6% a year, which is faster than the 0.4% annual growth rate in 2004 and 2014. Most of the increase in employment is more than 95% of non-farm wages and salary workers. Their work force is expected to increase from 139.8 million in 2014 to 149.1 million in 2024, adding more than 9.3 million jobs. The increase was more than 7.3 million tons from 2004 to 2014. The average growth rate for 2014-24 is 0.6 per cent, which is expected to be more than 0.5 per cent from 2004 to 2014. Agricultural workers are expected to reduce the number of jobs by 10.55 million jobs from 2014 to 2024, down by half a percentage point a year, and employment declines to more than 2 million jobs. The decline far exceeds the slight increase in agricultural work during 2004-14. By the end of that year, the number of people employed in agriculture reached 2.1 million, with 26, 900 new jobs and 0.1 percent annual growth. The number of self-employed workers in non-agricultural jobs is expected to increase from nearly 8.6 million in 2014 to nearly 9.2 million in 2024. There were 57.93 million new jobs, with annual growth of 0.7 percent
BLS project actual output will be increased from $2014 in 27.7 trillion to nearly $34.6 trillion in 2024. 4 at an annual rate of 2.2% growth of the growth of more than $6.8 trillion, more than 6.8 trillion – 14 years growth of more than $2.7 trillions, an average annual rate of return is 1.0%. In terms of employment, most of the growth in actual output is expected to come from non-agricultural sectors. During 2014-24, the agricultural sector (including forestry, fisheries and hunting) is expected to grow by only 1.9% a year. But compared with the average annual growth of 0.4% in the agricultural sector from 2004 to 2014, the agricultural sector grew at a slower pace than the economy as a whole. (see table 2)
Macroeconomic variables such as the Labour force, gross domestic product (GDP) and its components and Labour productivity have affected the growth of total employment. The BLS’s planned GDP will grow from about $16.1 trillion in 2014 to about $19.9 trillion in 2024. Annual growth is expected to be 2.2%. The growth rate is higher than the 1.6% growth rate from 2004 to 2014. The number of civilian workers is expected to increase from 155.9 million in 2014 to 163.8 million in 2024, an increase of 7.9 million. The annual growth rate of the Labour force was 0.5 per cent, slightly lower than the 0.6 per cent figure in 2004 and 2014. The labor force participation rate is projected to fall 0.3 percent per year from 2014 to 2014, mainly due to an aging population. Labour productivity (defined as output per artificial hour) is projected to grow at a rate of 1.8 per cent a year from 2014 to 2024, higher than the 1.5 per cent annual rate that began in 2004. These macro variables and the prediction of industry models determine the final forecast of employment and output. 7
Starting in 2011, nonfarm payrolls and wage employment began to rebound from the recession. By 2014, non-farm payrolls and salaries are bigger than they were before the recession or any other time. Due to the expected decline in Labour force participation, the number of non-farm wage and wage workers is expected to grow more slowly than earlier forecasts, except for other variables. As a result, wages and wages are expected to be lower in 2012-22 than in the forecast period.